A Trump presidency could end hopes of keeping global warming below 1.5C, according to the Carbon Brief website.
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election could lead to an additional four billion tonnes of US emissions by 2030 compared with Joe Biden’s plans, according to analysis revealed by the Carbon Brief website.
The extra four billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2030 would cause global climate damages worth more than $900bn, based on the latest US government valuations. For context, 4GtCO2e is equivalent to the combined annual emissions of the EU and Japan, or the combined annual total of the world’s 140 lowest-emitting countries.
“Put another way, the extra 4GtCO2e from a second Trump term would negate – twice over – all of the savings from deploying wind, solar and other clean technologies around the world over the past five years,” reports Carbon Brief.
The website also claims that Trump’s second term will mean that the US would also “very likely miss its global climate pledge by a wide margin, with emissions only falling to 28% below 2005 levels by 2030”. The US’s current target under the Paris Agreement is to achieve a 50-52% reduction by 2030.
Carbon Brief’s analysis is based on an aggregation of modelling by various US research groups. It highlights the significant impact of the Biden administration’s climate policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act – which Trump has pledged to reverse – along with several other policies.
The findings are subject to uncertainty around economic growth, fuel and technology prices, the market response to incentives and the extent to which Trump is able to roll back president Biden’s policies. The analysis may overstate the impact Trump could have on US emissions, if some of Biden’s policies prove hard to unpick, or if subnational climate action accelerates.
On the other hand, it might understate Trump’s impact. For example, the new president elect’s pledge to “drill, baby, drill” is not included within the analysis and would probably raise US and global emissions further through the increased extraction and burning of oil, gas and coal.
“Regardless of the precise impact, a second Trump term that successfully dismantles Biden’s climate legacy would likely end any global hopes of keeping global warming below 1.5C,” says Carbon Brief.
Carbon Brief is a UK-based website covering the latest developments in climate science, climate policy and energy policy. Find out more at www.carbonbrief.org
