Wither globalisation? A new golden era for who?

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Recent geopolitical developments have put globalisation in the spotlight, posing the question of whether the erosion of effective global interfaces will hasten a ‘race to the bottom’, writes Clare B Marshall.

In recent weeks, we’d be forgiven for thinking that globalisation (as we traditionally know it) is going out of fashion, that is globalisation in its simplest terms, the seamless connectivity of people and countries.

The term globalisation was said to be used for the first time as far back as 1930 and since then its meaning has evolved becoming an important precursor to the success of many international businesses. In 2007, the New York Times claimed: “Globalisation should be managed by governments that represent their people and our planet, not by corporate empires that represent only their own short-term interests”.

A complex statement which invites many questions, particularly given politicians’ propensity to take short-term political standpoints. Can (or should) globalisation even be ‘managed’ per se? To what extent is globalisation ideological or philosophical?

With a rapidly realigning world order, the definition of globalisation perhaps requires a rethink. Or, as we start to see the rules of engagement between global powers shift, there may be no pressing need as we potentially enter a period of deglobalisation and the erosion of effective global interfaces.

Are people and countries still sufficiently connected to continue to make positive impacts more broadly, whether in business, politics or society?

Testing cooperation on a global scale

In a special address to the delegates of Davos recently, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen reminisced on the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) ambition for collaboration and unity. She argued that “the cooperative world order we imagined 25 years ago has not turned into reality” and that we have “entered an era of harsh, geostrategic competition”. She argues that, whilst people and countries remain connected, relationships based on mutual trust are also becoming increasingly fractured.

This message was loud and clear in the recent WEF’s 2025 Global Risks Report where a “bleak” outlook is projected from the 900 risk commentators participating in the survey informing the report. Summarised here by 2MPy, the report talks of “interconnected crisis” and “greater challenges as mechanisms for collaboration are expected to face mounting pressure”. This all against the dominant threats of risk events such as state-based armed conflict, misinformation and disinformation, extreme weather events, societal polarisation and cyber-espionage and warfare.

Perhaps the robust response from the EU was felt to be needed in the face of renewed westerly headwinds. A strong catalyst for debate, new US leadership and upcoming policies have created much reflection across many nations. Amongst the new president’s pledges was talk of a new golden age. But what will this look like and who will be the true beneficiaries?

Politics and ideologies aside, it is important to focus on opportunity. We don’t wholly agree with the “failed cooperative world order” premise. After all, the cogs of the world’s systems have developed and (largely) remained resilient through financial crises, pandemic recovery, cost of living crisis and conflict. Indeed, the sentiment is at odds with the current trade agreements between Europe and other parts of the world which have remained robust.

Whilst the threat of new trade wars and potential tariffs is very real, this does not mean that cooperation is dead and gone. Indeed, more, not less, cooperation and collaboration are needed – geopolitically, societally and entrepreneurially, ‘wheels within wheels’ if you will.

Building the foundations for cooperation

As also outlined in Ursula von der Leyen’s special address, the EU in particular is placing renewed focus on diplomatic relationships and strategic partnerships with global power centres. In addition, and with the next five years mapped through a Competitiveness Compass, it is also looking at new ways to reinvigorate trade and innovation initiatives. This includes overcoming skills and labour shortages and lowering barriers of entry into Europe with the aim of making the region more competitive – and attractive – to those within and outside its borders.

Key themes include investment mechanisms, a new regulatory and legal framework and cleaner, cheaper energy. At the heart of Europe’s ambition in this context, is a wish to “create conditions where businesses thrive, the environment is protected, and everyone has an equal chance at success”. (Background to The Draghi report on EU competitiveness, September 2024)
The spirt of cooperation – and competition – is alive and well.

And, with 2025 designated the International Year of Cooperatives by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, we see a positive step for sustainable business and development. The aim is to underscore the importance of the “cooperative model…. (as) a crucial solution for addressing various global challenges”.

The business world needs to act now to maintain (and build) trusted, long-term relationships with its partners and embrace the opportunities created by healthy competition, in some cases in new geographies, to ride the storm of a changing geopolitical landscape.

The dawn of a golden age can mean different things to different people. Freedom, prosperity, community spirit, competition, good health, safety, stability, certainty, security and hope. But also, and arguably most importantly, mutual respect and a vibrant culture of collaboration.

As Ursula von der Leyen says, we must “work together to avoid a global race to the bottom” and ensure that the golden age, which is promised, is in reach for all.

Clare B Marshall is co-partner of the business consultancy 2MPy specialising in global business strategy.