Findings highlight expanding footprint of destruction and increasing complexity in restoring systems essential for economic recovery and social wellbeing in Ukraine.
Four years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an updated joint Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) released at the end of February by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission and the United Nations currently estimates that as of 31 December 2025, the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is almost $588bn (over €500bn) over the next decade, which is nearly three times the estimated nominal GDP of Ukraine for 2025.
With the support of development partners, the Government of Ukraine is taking significant steps to meet recovery and reconstruction priorities for 2026, including public investment projects and essential recovery support programmes such as funding for destroyed housing, demining, and multisector economic support programmes, totalling more than $15bn. In addition, at least $20bn in needs have already been met since February 2022 through urgent repairs and early recovery activities in housing, energy, education, transport and other essential sectors.
“Four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, the total cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery is now estimated at nearly $588bn over the next decade, nearly three times the country’s projected nominal GDP for 2025,” noted Ukraine prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko.
“Amid unprecedented Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and homes across Ukraine this winter, our people show resilience, our entrepreneurs keep working. We still manage to recover fast and develop further. I thank the World Bank, EU, and UN teams for supporting our efforts to stand against the challenges. The assistance helps us urgently repair our critical infrastructure to keep the country running as well as continue systematic recovery activities focusing on energy projects and housing for our people,” Svyrydenko said.
The latest update presents an overview of nearly four years of impact, covering 46 months between February 2022 and December 2025. It finds that direct damage in Ukraine has now reached over $195bn (€166bn), up from $176bn (€150bn) in the RDNA4 of February 2025, with housing, transport and energy sectors being most affected. Damage, losses and needs remain concentrated in frontline oblasts and major metropolitan areas.
In the energy sector, which has been subject to increased attacks as Ukraine endures a winter of record intensity, there has been an approximately 21% increase in damaged or destroyed assets since the RDNA4, including power generation, transmission, distribution infrastructure and district heating. In the transport sector, needs have increased by around 24% since RDNA4 and are the result of intensified attacks on rail and ports during 2025. As of 31 December 2025, 14% of housing has been damaged or destroyed, impacting over three million households.
Anna Bjerde, World Bank managing director of operations, said: “Despite the widespread damage that continues to mount against Ukraine’s people, economy and infrastructure, the entire country continues to press on with remarkable strength and resolve. The World Bank Group stands firmly committed to supporting Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction and helping to advance the people of Ukraine with jobs, opportunities and hope in a resilient, modern and competitive economy.”
Ukraine’s private sector has demonstrated significant resilience in the face of unprecedented disruption and will play a critical role in recovery and reconstruction. The RDNA5 underscores that unlocking the full potential of private investment – both domestic and international – will depend on sustained reforms to improve the business environment, strengthen competition, expand access to finance, address labour constraints and align production with EU green and digital standards.
Promoting sustainable and inclusive development and job creation and integrated approaches to resilient recovery at the local level – such as through the government’s pilot Comprehensive Restoration programme – will also be essential. The RDNA5 findings complement the reform and investment agenda of the Ukraine Facility, grounded in the EU accession process, for the next two years.
Of the total long-term needs, reconstruction and recovery needs are the highest in the transport sector (over $96bn (€82bn)). This is followed by the energy sector (nearly $91bn (€77bn)), the housing sector (almost $90bn (€77bn)), commerce and industry sector (over $63bn (€54bn)), and agriculture sector (over $55bn (€47bn)). The cost of explosives hazard management and debris clearance is almost $28bn (€24bn), despite some progress in surveying and demining that helped to contain losses in this sector.
“People are central to recovery,” said Matthias Schmale, the UN resident and humanitarian coordinator in Ukraine. “Ukraine’s most critical asset is its people. Refugee return, veteran reintegration and women’s labour force participation will shape economic recovery as much as capital flows and rebuilding infrastructure. Recovery must be human-centred and community-based,” said Schmale.
Click here to download the updated Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5)
